Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in southern Sudan, northern Ethiopia, and western Eritrea while Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most places of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) with high levels of heat stress over northern Sudan, coastal Eritrea, and Afar region in Ethiopia.    

Total rainfall 

• Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) is expected over parts of western and northern Ethiopia and isolated parts of southern Sudan. 
• Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) is expected over southern Sudan, northern and south-western South Sudan, western Eritrea, northern Ethiopia, and isolated areas in northern Uganda and western Kenya.
• Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is expected over Somalia, Djibouti, southern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, central to northern Uganda, and coastal and southern Tanzania.
• Dry conditions are expected over Rwanda, Burundi, western and southern Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, eastern South Sudan, and northern Sudan.

Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 liter of water per square meter.

Rainfall Anomalies 

• Wetter than usual conditions are expected over southern Sudan, western and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, and parts of southern Somalia.
• Drier than usual conditions are expected over Uganda,  South Sudan, central Ethiopia, and western Kenya.

Exceptional rainfall

• Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in much of southern Sudan and cross-border regions of Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Temperature 23 – 30 August 2023

Mean Temperature

• Hot temperature (above 32 ℃) is expected over northern Sudan, the Afar region in Ethiopia, parts of Eritrea, Djibouti, and the north-western coastal regions of Somalia.
• Moderate to high temperature (20-32℃) is expected over central to southern Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, eastern and northern Kenya, Somalia,  western and southern Tanzania, and eastern regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
• Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) are expected over central to southern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, a few regions in northern to southern Tanzania, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.

Temperature anomalies

• Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).