Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in the northern regions of Ethiopia and western Eritrea. Warmer than average temperature is predicted over most places of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) with high levels of heat stress over northern Sudan and coastal Eritrea.  

Total rainfall 

• Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) is expected over a few regions of northern Ethiopia into western Eritrea.
• Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) is expected over southern Sudan, northern and south-western South Sudan, western Eritrea, and northern Ethiopia.
• Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is expected over Somalia, Djibouti, southern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, and central to northern Uganda.
• Dry conditions are expected over Rwanda, Burundi, central to western Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, eastern South Sudan, and north-western Sudan.

Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 liter of water per square meter.  

Rainfall Anomalies 

• Wetter than usual conditions are expected over parts of north-eastern and southeastern Sudan, Eritrea, and northern to north-eastern Ethiopia.
• Drier than usual conditions are expected over Uganda, South Sudan, central to southern Sudan, central to western Ethiopia, and parts of central to western Kenya.

Exceptional rainfall

• Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in much of northern Ethiopia, central to western Eritrea, and north-eastern Sudan.

Temperature 15 – 22 August 2023

Mean Temperature

• Hot temperature (above 32 ℃) is expected over north-western Somalia, north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, and northern Sudan.
• Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over South Sudan, central to southern Sudan, eastern and northern Kenya, central to northern Uganda, north-western and southern Tanzania, Somalia, and south-eastern Ethiopia.
• Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) are expected over central to eastern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, a few regions in northern to south-western Tanzania, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.

Temperature anomalies

• Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).