Weak La Niña Possible in Coming Months, WMO Says

There is a 55% chance that a weak La Niña will influence global weather and climate patterns over the next three months, according to the latest Update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

La Niña is the periodic large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, accompanied by shifts in tropical atmospheric circulation, including changes in winds, pressure, and rainfall patterns.

Although it typically exerts a temporary cooling influence on global average temperatures, many regions are still expected to be warmer than normal.

Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña remain essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, energy, health, and transport.

According to WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction, as of mid-November 2025, oceanic and atmospheric indicators point to borderline La Niña conditions. There is a 55% probability that the thresholds will be reached during the December–February 2025–2026 season.

For January–March and February–April 2026, the likelihood of returning to ENSO-neutral conditions gradually increases from about 65% to 75%. The chance of an El Niño is minimal.

“This climate intelligence helps us avert millions of dollars in economic losses and save countless lives,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, noting its importance in supporting humanitarian operations.

Natural climate patterns like La Niña and El Niño are now unfolding against the backdrop of human-driven global warming. This long-term warming is intensifying extreme weather events and altering typical seasonal temperature and rainfall trends.

A recent example is the 2020–2023 prolonged “triple-dip” La Niña—only the third such event since 1950. Despite La Niña’s usual cooling effect, global temperatures during this period remained among the hottest ever recorded, highlighting how human-driven warming is increasingly overriding natural climate variability.

The event was marked by intensified droughts and heatwaves in the western United States, southern South America, and eastern Australia; catastrophic flooding in eastern Australia and Southeast Asia due to moisture-laden air; and record-breaking heatwaves in Europe and China in 2022.