WMO Warns of Possible La Niña Return Amid Rising Global Temperatures

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According to the World Meteorological Organization’s latest report, La Niña may return, but temperatures will likely be above average. La Niña is a natural climate phenomenon that happens when the surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become cooler than normal. It is the opposite of El Niño, which is when those waters become warmer than usual.

It usually lasts 9–12 months but can persist longer, and it recurs every 2–7 years as part of the larger El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. It is associated with often drier than usual conditions, with a higher risk of drought in East Africa.

According to the latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction, there is a 55% chance for sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to cool to La Niña levels, and a 45% chance for them to remain at ENSO-neutral levels during the upcoming September–November 2025 period.

For October– December 2025, the probability of La Niña conditions slightly increases to about 60%. There is little chance of El Niño developing during September–December.

“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña and their associated impacts on our weather are an important climate intelligence tool. They translate into millions of dollars of economic savings for key sectors like agriculture, energy, health and transport and have saved thousands of lives when used to guide preparedness and response actions,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

Naturally occurring climate events such as La Niña and El Niño are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.

The latest Update says that for September to November, temperatures are expected to be above normal in much of the Northern hemisphere and large parts of the southern hemisphere.
Rainfall predictions resemble conditions typically observed during a moderate La Niña.