The Greater Horn of Africa is set to experience varied weather conditions in the coming week, with above-normal rainfall expected in parts of central to northern Ethiopia, southern Sudan, and eastern South Sudan.

Based on the IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center (ICPAC), regions along the Red Sea coast and northern parts of Sudan are likely to endure elevated levels of heat stress due to persistently high temperatures.

Heavy rainfall, exceeding 200 millimetres, is forecast in localized areas of southern Sudan, northern Ethiopia, and the northeastern parts of South Sudan. These intense downpours may result in disruptions, particularly in flood-prone zones.

Moderate rainfall, ranging between 50 to 200 millimetres, is expected across most parts of South Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, southern Sudan, northern Uganda, and parts of western Kenya.

Meanwhile, lighter showers, less than 50 millimetres, are likely in Djibouti, central and northern Sudan, northern and southern Somalia, coastal Kenya, and eastern Tanzania.

Anomalies in rainfall distribution are also evident. Eastern South Sudan, northern Uganda, central to northern Ethiopia, and much of Eritrea and Djibouti are likely to receive more rain than usual for this time of the year.

Conversely, drier-than-average conditions may prevail in western South Sudan, eastern and parts of western Sudan, southeastern Uganda, and the southwestern regions of Kenya.

There is also a weather forecast of exceptional rainfall, amounts surpassing the 90th percentile of historical records, particularly in parts of southern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, northern Uganda, northern and western Ethiopia, and central to western Eritrea.

This level of rainfall is rare and could signal a heightened risk of flooding and other hydrological hazards.

Indeed, the likelihood of flooding remains significant in vulnerable areas, notably northeastern Ethiopia, central-western Sudan, and eastern South Sudan.

On the temperature front, northern Sudan, the Afar region in Ethiopia, and coastal zones along the Red Sea are expected to experience high temperatures above 32°C.

Most parts of Somalia, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, eastern and northern Kenya, southern Sudan, southeastern Ethiopia, and areas of eastern and western Tanzania will see moderate to high temperatures ranging between 20°C and 32°C.

Meanwhile, milder conditions, below 20°C, are forecast for western Kenya, most of Rwanda, central and southern Tanzania, and central Ethiopia.

Temperature anomalies reveal a broader warming trend across much of the Greater Horn of Africa, although some cooler-than-usual pockets may persist across the border regions of South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Sudan.

Notably, elevated heat stress is anticipated in parts of the Afar region, coastal stretches along the Red Sea, and across large swathes of eastern and northern Sudan.

These weather conditions could have implications for both human health and agricultural productivity.