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Enhanced rainfall is expected across parts of South Sudan, northern Uganda, western Kenya, and the Ethiopian highlands between May 13 and May 20, 2026, even as much of the Greater Horn of Africa continues to experience warmer-than-average temperatures and elevated heat stress.

The latest outlook from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) indicates that moderate rainfall ranging between 50 and 200 millimeters is likely over most parts of South Sudan, northern and eastern Uganda, and western regions of Ethiopia and Kenya.

Meanwhile, light rainfall of less than 50 millimeters is forecast across most parts of Tanzania, Somalia, south-eastern and northern Ethiopia, southern Uganda, southern Sudan, and large parts of Kenya.

Meteorologists note that 1 millimeter of rainfall is equivalent to one litre of water per square meter, highlighting the varying rainfall intensity expected across the region.

Forecast models further indicate above-average rainfall across most parts of northern Uganda and western regions of Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Kenya, signaling wetter-than-usual conditions in key agricultural and highland zones.

However, below-normal rainfall is expected over parts of Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, and central to southern Uganda, reflecting the increasingly uneven nature of rainfall distribution across East Africa.

Forecasters are also warning of exceptionally heavy rainfall, with totals exceeding the 90th percentile expected across south-western Ethiopia, parts of South Sudan, north-eastern Uganda, and western Kenya.

The intense rainfall increases the likelihood of flooding, particularly across western Ethiopia, pockets of central South Sudan, and parts of central-western Kenya, where communities in flood-prone areas are encouraged to remain cautious.

Temperatures Remain High Across the Greater Horn

Alongside the enhanced rainfall, temperatures are expected to remain moderately high across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.

Temperatures exceeding 32°C are forecast over parts of Sudan, Djibouti, and north-eastern Ethiopia, while moderate to high temperatures between 20°C and 32°C are expected across much of the region.

Meanwhile, milder conditions below 20°C are likely across Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, and most highland areas across the Greater Horn, influenced by elevation and cloud cover associated with rainfall activity.

The broader outlook points to warmer-than-usual temperatures across most parts of the region, although parts of eastern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, central to southern Kenya, and isolated areas across the Greater Horn may experience relatively cooler-than-normal conditions.

Despite rainfall in some regions, heat stress remains a concern, with conditions within the “Extreme Caution” category expected across most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern and northern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, and the Afar region of Ethiopia.

The forecast highlights a region experiencing increasingly contrasting weather extremes, where enhanced rainfall and flood risks coexist with persistent heat and localized rainfall deficits, underscoring the growing influence of climate variability across East Africa.