Greece and other Mediterranean countries are once again grappling with devastating wildfires, following the hottest June and July on record. By mid-August, the fires in Greece alone had consumed 100,000 acres (405 sq km) of land, raising urgent concerns about the future of the region’s ecosystems.
These fires come just one year after a similar disaster when 334,000 acres (1,350 sq km) were left scorched across southern Europe in just 12 days. The fires also affected other Mediterranean regions, including Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. These extreme conditions, intensified by heatwaves that would have been “virtually impossible” without climate change, are testing the resilience of the Mediterranean landscape.
Mediterranean Ecosystems: Designed to Burn, but for How Long?
Wildfires have always been a natural part of the Mediterranean life cycle. “Mediterranean ecosystems are designed to burn,” says Jenny Williams, a senior spatial analyst at the Royal Botanic Gardens in Kew, London. These ecosystems are adapted to regular fires, which play a crucial role in their regeneration. Certain species, for instance, require the intense heat of a fire to crack open their seeds and begin a new cycle of growth.
The Mediterranean basin, along with similar climates in Australia, California, South Africa, and Chile, is recognized as a biodiversity hotspot. These regions cover just 5% of the Earth’s land surface but harbor 20% of its biodiversity. In these areas, recurrent fires have historically contributed to higher biodiversity.
Adam Pellegrini, an associate professor in plant sciences at the University of Cambridge, explains that “pyrodiversity,” or the variability in fire regimes, fosters a range of conditions that allow different species to coexist, leading to greater biodiversity.
The Challenge of Unprecedented Fires
However, the increasing frequency, intensity, and scale of wildfires, driven by climate change, are now threatening the ability of these ecosystems to recover. While Mediterranean plants have evolved traits to survive regular fires—such as thick bark, water-storing tissues, and heat-resistant seeds—these adaptations may not be sufficient in the face of the more extreme blazes we now see.
When fires burn too fiercely or too frequently, the landscape’s natural regeneration process is disrupted. Global warming is reshaping Europe’s pyroregions, with fire seasons becoming longer, more common, and less predictable. This trend is alarming scientists, who worry that the capacity of these ecosystems to bounce back may be outstripped by the accelerating pace of climate change.
The Long Road to Recovery
The future of the Mediterranean landscape is uncertain. Vegetation can take anywhere from 25 to 250 years to fully mature after a wildfire, depending on the species and the speed of growth. In Southern California, for instance, chaparral habitats may take 30-60 years to return to maturity, while Canada’s boreal and temperate forests may recover in as little as 10 years. But as the intervals between fires shorten, recovery becomes increasingly difficult.
Moreover, when forests do regrow, they are often smaller, younger, and drier than before, reducing their carbon storage capacity. High-intensity fires can also damage the soil, leading to erosion, reduced water absorption, and biodiversity loss. Some ecosystems may never fully recover; studies suggest that certain forests in the Rocky Mountains of the U.S. may eventually convert to grasslands due to the relentless fires.
A New Normal for the Mediterranean?
As the Mediterranean region faces more frequent and intense wildfires, the landscape is likely to undergo significant changes. While these ecosystems have a natural ability to recover, the scale of recent fires suggests that the region may be on the brink of a “new normal.”
“Mediterranean ecosystems are designed to burn. I think they can recover – but for the first two to three years, it will look different,” says Williams. “We’re probably looking at about 15 years for a better kind of recovery. It’s still probably going to be different though, a new normal.”
Williams emphasizes that this change isn’t necessarily negative. Some species may not return, but new ones could emerge, leading to a rebalancing of the ecosystem. She advocates for a localized approach to restoration, working with communities to foster natural regeneration.
