Much of the Greater Horn of Africa is expected to experience below-normal rainfall between June 10 and June 17, 2026, with depressed precipitation forecast across South Sudan, Uganda, western Kenya, and central to northern Ethiopia, while warmer-than-average temperatures continue to dominate the region.
The latest outlook from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) suggests a continuation of the dry conditions that have characterized recent weeks, although a few areas are expected to receive localized rainfall capable of triggering isolated heavy downpours.
Forecasts indicate moderate rainfall ranging between 50 and 200 millimeters across parts of southern Sudan, north-western South Sudan, and western Ethiopia. Elsewhere, light rainfall below 50 millimeters is expected over eastern and southern Tanzania, southern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, most parts of South Sudan, central to south-eastern Sudan, and parts of southern Ethiopia.
Meteorologists note that 1 millimeter of rainfall is equivalent to one litre of water per square meter, illustrating the relatively limited moisture expected across much of the region during the forecast period.
Rainfall anomaly projections indicate above-average rainfall over south-western Sudan, north-western South Sudan, western Ethiopia, and isolated areas of eastern Tanzania.
However, these wetter pockets are expected to be outweighed by below-normal rainfall across much of South Sudan, Uganda, western Kenya, central to northern Ethiopia, and isolated coastal areas of central to southern Somalia.
The forecast reflects an increasingly uneven rainfall pattern across East Africa, with localized wet conditions occurring alongside widespread rainfall deficits.
Forecasters also warn of exceptional rainfall events, with precipitation totals exceeding the 90th percentile expected over south-western Ethiopia and isolated areas along the southern Sudan–north-western South Sudan border.
Although limited in geographical extent, these intense rainfall episodes could trigger localized flooding and disruption in vulnerable communities.
Warmer Conditions Dominate the Greater Horn of Africa
Alongside the subdued rainfall outlook, temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal averages across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.
Temperatures exceeding 32°C are forecast over Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, and north-eastern Ethiopia, while moderate to high temperatures ranging between 20°C and 32°C are expected across most parts of the region.
Meanwhile, milder conditions below 20°C are likely over Rwanda, Burundi, central to western Kenya, central Tanzania, and parts of central to northern Ethiopia, particularly in highland areas where elevation moderates temperatures.
The broader outlook indicates warmer-than-usual temperatures across most parts of the Greater Horn, with only a few isolated areas expected to experience relatively cooler conditions.
Heat stress is also expected to remain a significant concern. Conditions within the “Extreme Caution” category are forecast across most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern and northern Kenya, Somalia, and north-eastern Ethiopia.
These conditions increase the risk of heat-related illnesses, particularly among vulnerable populations, outdoor workers, pastoral communities, and those with limited access to cooling and water resources.
The latest forecast highlights a region increasingly shaped by contrasting climate extremes, where localized heavy rainfall events occur amid broader rainfall deficits and persistent heat.
As temperatures continue to rise and rainfall patterns become more variable, experts stress the importance of close monitoring, preparedness, and effective early warning systems to reduce risks to livelihoods, agriculture, and water resources across East Africa.
