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Based on the IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center (ICPAC) forecast for 10th June to 17th June, warmer-than-usual temperatures are expected across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. Enhanced rainfall is anticipated over central to western South Sudan, with heavy rainfall exceeding 200 mm forecast in parts of north-western South Sudan.

Moderate rainfall, ranging between 50 and 200 mm, is expected over most parts of South Sudan, the southern areas of Sudan, and the western regions of both Kenya and Ethiopia.

Light rainfall, with totals less than 50 mm, is expected in most parts of Uganda, eastern Tanzania, coastal and western Kenya, southern and northern Somalia, and southern regions of Sudan.

Rainfall amounts above the seasonal average are expected over central to western South Sudan, the western parts of Ethiopia, and parts of southern Sudan.

Conversely, below-average rainfall is anticipated over most parts of Uganda, parts of eastern and southern South Sudan, and central Ethiopia.

Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile, among the highest 10% on record, is expected in some areas of western Ethiopia and South Sudan.

Due to this, there is a likelihood of flash flood incidents occurring in north-western and central parts of South Sudan, as well as in isolated pockets of western Ethiopia.

High temperatures, exceeding 32℃, are expected in parts of eastern Sudan, the Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, north-western Somalia, and coastal and western areas of Eritrea.

Moderate to high temperatures, ranging between 20℃ and 32℃, are likely over most parts of South Sudan, western Sudan, central to northern Uganda, western and eastern Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, eastern Ethiopia, and most parts of Somalia.

Mild temperature conditions, with values below 20℃, are expected in Rwanda, Burundi, southern Uganda, central to southern Tanzania, central to western Kenya, and central to southern Ethiopia.

In general, warmer-than-usual temperatures are expected across much of the Greater Horn of Africa. Elevated heat stress levels are anticipated in parts of south-eastern Sudan, the Afar region in Ethiopia, the north-western coastal areas of Somalia, and in most areas of Djibouti and Eritrea.