The latest weather outlook from the IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Centre (ICPAC) for the period 20–27 January 2026 indicates contrasting climate conditions across the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), with localized heavy rainfall in southern Tanzania and generally dry and hotter-than-average conditions across much of the region.

According to ICPAC, most parts of Eastern Africa are expected to continue experiencing warmer-than-average temperatures compounded by dryness, even as central to western Tanzania records moderate rainfall during the forecast period.

ICPAC projects moderate rainfall ranging between 50–200 mm over parts of central and western Tanzania, as well as central to western Burundi.

Meanwhile, light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over most parts of Rwanda, northern Burundi, and in isolated areas of southern Kenya, coastal Somalia, coastal eastern Sudan, coastal Eritrea, and northern and central Tanzania.

Analysis of ICPAC rainfall anomaly and exceptional rainfall maps points to a localized episode of heavy rainfall over southern Tanzania. The area is forecast to receive above-average rainfall, with pockets of heavy to very heavy precipitation, increasing the risk of localized flooding and waterlogging.

In contrast, much of the Greater Horn of Africa, including Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan, is projected to experience near-normal to below-normal rainfall, reinforcing generally dry conditions across the region.

This sharp rainfall contrast highlights continued hydrological stress in large parts of the GHA, even as southern Tanzania faces heightened short-term flood risk.

Rainfall anomaly maps compare expected precipitation with the long-term average, where green shades indicate wetter-than-normal conditions, while yellow to red shades reflect drier-than-normal conditions.

Southern Tanzania stands out clearly, with large areas recording above-average rainfall, confirming the exceptional rainfall signal: the surrounding regions, particularly central and eastern Tanzania, experience below-average rainfall.

Temperature Outlook In GHA

The mean temperature outlook for 20–27 January 2026 shows widespread heat across the Greater Horn of Africa(GHA). Extremely hot conditions dominate Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, and northern Ethiopia, where average temperatures are expected to exceed 32–40°C, especially over arid and semi-arid zones.

Warm to hot conditions ranging between 24–32°C are forecast across Kenya, Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania, consistent with typical January climatology.

In contrast, cooler temperatures below 20°C are largely confined to high-altitude areas, including the Ethiopian Highlands, Kenya Highlands, Mount Kilimanjaro region, and parts of the Albertine Rift.

Temperature anomaly maps indicate that most of the region will experience above-average temperatures, with Sudan, South Sudan, northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia recording anomalies exceeding +2.0°C.

Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania are also expected to experience above-normal temperatures, though generally less intense. Localized cooler-than-normal conditions are observed along parts of the Somali coast and eastern Kenya, likely linked to cloud cover and rainfall influence.

Overall, the combination of limited rainfall and elevated temperatures is expected to intensify drought-related risks in arid and semi-arid areas, while localized flood risk persists in southern Tanzania.

ICPAC warns that these contrasting conditions emphasize the need for heightened early-warning preparedness and targeted response measures across the Greater Horn of Africa.