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Enhanced rainfall is expected across large parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) between March 17 and 24, 2026, raising concerns over flooding in East Africa even as temperatures remain generally warm across the region.

Based on the latest IGAD Climate predictions and Applications Center (ICPAC) regional forecast, significant rainfall will be recorded over South Sudan, Uganda, western Ethiopia, northern Tanzania, and central to western Kenya. These areas are likely to experience wetter-than-usual conditions, signaling a peak in the ongoing rainy season.

Moderate rainfall totals ranging between 50mm and 200mm are forecast over most parts of Rwanda and Burundi, central and northern Tanzania, south-western Ethiopia, as well as central and south-western Kenya.

Parts of South Sudan, particularly in the south-west and north-east, are also expected to receive similar rainfall amounts.

Meanwhile, lighter rainfall of less than 50mm is expected across central to eastern Uganda, northern and eastern Kenya, much of Somalia, and parts of Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan.

Despite these lower totals, some of these regions may still experience localized impacts due to variability in rainfall distribution.

Rainfall anomalies indicate that much of the region will receive above-average precipitation, particularly in South Sudan, Uganda, western Ethiopia, northern Tanzania, and central and western Kenya.

However, drier-than-usual conditions are expected over southern and eastern Tanzania, most parts of Burundi, and isolated areas in eastern Kenya.

Of particular concern is the likelihood of exceptional rainfall, defined as rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile, in parts of northern Tanzania, central Kenya, and south-western Ethiopia.

This raises the risk of flooding in these areas, with authorities urging communities in flood-prone zones to remain vigilant during the forecast period.

Temperature Outlook Reveals High Temps in Parts of East Africa

In terms of temperature, much of the GHA will experience moderate to high temperatures ranging between 20°C and 32°C. However, hotter conditions exceeding 32°C are expected in some parts of East Africa, like the southern Sudan and south-eastern South Sudan.

Cooler conditions, with temperatures dropping below 20°C, are likely over the Ethiopian highlands, parts of central to western Kenya, southern Tanzania, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.

These cooler conditions are consistent with highland climates and increased cloud cover associated with rainfall.

Temperature anomalies show that most parts of the region will experience warmer-than-usual conditions, although highland areas are expected to remain relatively cooler than average.

At the same time, elevated heat stress levels categorized as “Extreme Caution” are forecast in South Sudan, eastern Tanzania, eastern Kenya, south-western Somalia, and southern Sudan.

These conditions could pose health risks, particularly for vulnerable populations, and call for precautionary measures such as staying hydrated and limiting prolonged exposure to heat.

Overall, the week ahead presents a mixed weather pattern characterized by intensified rainfall in key areas, heightened flood risks, and persistent heat stress in others, emphasizing the need for preparedness across the region.