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The South Sudan Meteorological Services, in collaboration with regional climate partners, has released the seasonal climate outlook for the March–May (MAM) 2026 rainfall season, forecasting increased chances of wetter-than-normal conditions in several parts of the country.

The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) regional consensus forecast was developed at the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services from member states, in partnership with the World Meteorological Organization and other stakeholders between 13 and 19 January 2026.

The outlook was officially released on 27 January 2026 in Nairobi during the 72nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 72), convened to formulate the regional forecast for the MAM 2026 season.

According to the South Sudan Meteorological Services:

55% probability of above-average rainfall is expected over the southern parts of Central and Eastern Equatoria states and northern Lakes State.

45% probability of near-average rainfall is forecast for Southern to Eastern Equatoria; much of Central Equatoria; southwest to northern Western Equatoria; southeastern Western Bahr El Ghazal; much of Lakes and Warrap; southern Unity; northern Jonglei; and south-eastern Upper Nile.

40% probability of near-average rainfall is projected over Western Equatoria; northwest Eastern Equatoria; southern Jonglei; much of the Pibor Administrative Area; and central Upper Nile.

“Drier (climatologically dry) conditions are expected in the northern part of South Sudan,” said Mojwok Ogawi Modo, Director of Meteorology.

The forecast also indicates a normal onset of rains across many parts of the country during the MAM 2026 season.

However, it cautions that dry spells may still occur in areas forecast to receive above-normal rainfall, while wet spells are also possible in areas expected to receive near-normal rainfall.

Temperature outlook

Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across most parts of South Sudan, particularly in the north-east and north-west of the country.

Advisory to farmers and communities

Meteorological authorities have issued the following advisories:

“Farmers should prepare land early, use certified seeds, and adopt soil and water conservation practices while planning for potential dry spells.”

“Communities and local authorities are urged to clear drainage systems to reduce flood risk and prepare for localized flooding in high-rainfall areas. Water harvesting and storage are recommended in the typically drier northern regions,” Met advised.