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Enhanced rainfall is expected across large parts of Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi between 11 and 18 February 2026 as forecasted by the IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center(ICPAC) for the greater horn of Africa. A contrasting experience will be elevated heat stress, which is forecast to intensify across eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and parts of South Sudan.

The latest weekly outlook from the ICPAC shows a split weather pattern across the Eastern Africa region, with wetter-than-usual conditions concentrated in the southern and central corridor and warmer-than-average temperatures dominating most of the region.

Tanzania is projected to record the heaviest precipitation. Isolated areas in southern Tanzania are expected to receive heavy rainfall exceeding 200mm, while moderate rainfall of between 50mm and 200mm is forecast over most parts of Tanzania, Burundi, and Rwanda.

Light rainfall below 50mm is expected over central to northern Uganda, southern South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, south-western Kenya, and most coastal regions of Somalia. Forecasters note that 1mm of rainfall equals one litre of water per square metre, indicating significant water accumulation in high-rainfall zones.

Rainfall is expected to exceed seasonal averages across most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and central to northern Tanzania. In contrast, parts of western Tanzania are forecast to experience below-average rainfall.

Exceptional rainfall, defined as precipitation exceeding the 90th percentile of historical records, is likely over parts of central to northern Tanzania. Such extremes increase the risk of localized flooding, soil erosion, and damage to infrastructure, particularly in vulnerable low-lying areas.

Temperature forecasts indicate moderate to high conditions ranging between 20°C and 32°C across most of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, and central to southern Sudan. Cooler conditions below 20°C are expected in parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.

Despite localized variations, most of the Greater Horn is projected to experience warmer-than-average temperatures. Parts of Sudan, Eritrea, north-western Ethiopia, and northern and western South Sudan are expected to be at least 2°C above long-term averages.

These elevated temperatures are contributing to rising heat stress across the eastern corridor. Eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and eastern South Sudan are forecast to fall within the “Extreme Caution” heat stress category, alongside eastern Tanzania.

Heightened heat stress poses risks to human health, livestock, and water resources, particularly for outdoor workers and vulnerable communities.

At the same time, the anticipated rainfall in Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi may support crop development and replenish water supplies, although the potential for extreme rainfall events requires preparedness for flash flooding.

The outlook highlights the region’s increasing vulnerability to weather extremes, underscoring the need for early warning systems and climate-resilient planning to safeguard livelihoods across the Greater Horn of Africa.