Based on UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report, the nations must commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 in their next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This comes after the first Global Stocktake revealed that the efforts stipulated in the NDCs fell short of reducing the greenhouse gas emissions whose impacts are witnessed globally. It’s evident that without urgent action, the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal may soon become unattainable, according to a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report.
The updated NDCs are expected early next year, ahead of COP30 in Brazil. The fast-approaching COP29 is highly renowned as the ‘finance COP’, as negotiators anticipate that it can deliver financial reforms and climate finance for developing nations’ programs.
UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2024: No More Hot Air warns that failing to raise ambitions and implement emissions reductions could lead to a global temperature rise of 2.6-3.1°C by the end of the century, with severe impacts on people, ecosystems, and economies.
In the 2.6°C scenario, which assumes full implementation of current NDCs, warming would continue into the next century. It’s estimated that with only current unconditional NDCs implemented, warming would reach 2.8°C or further which scientists deem irreversible hence calling for more action now.
Inaction beyond current policies would push temperatures to 3.1°C whereas adding net-zero pledges could potentially limit warming to 1.9°C, confidence in their effective implementation remains low.
António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, emphasized, that the emissions gap is not abstract pointing out that there is a direct link between emissions and intense climate disasters, from supercharged hurricanes to catastrophic floods.
Antonio Guterres further urged countries to close the “ambition, implementation, and finance gaps,” starting with COP29 since the only way ahead is possible through action and fewer pledges.
According to UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen, limiting global warming to below 2°C requires emissions reductions of 28% by 2030 and 37% by 2035, relative to 2019 levels. She urged countries to use COP29 to boost climate action, warning, “The 1.5°C goal will soon be out of reach if we don’t act now.”
The report highlights that since 2019, emissions have reached a record high of 57.1 gigatons CO₂ equivalent, requiring annual reductions of 7.5% until 2035 to stay on a 1.5°C pathway and 4% for a 2°C target. Pointing out that more delays only increase the annual cuts needed to meet these targets.
Achieving these goals remains technically feasible but only if action is to be collectively embraced globally for the greater good. The report estimates a potential reduction of 31 gigatons CO₂ equivalent by 2030 (52% of 2023 emissions) and 41 gigatons by 2035, with a cost below $200 per ton.
Expanding solar and wind energy could provide 27% of the reduction by 2030, while forest preservation could contribute another 20%. Other effective actions include energy efficiency, electrification, and transitioning to cleaner fuels in sectors like transport and industry.
Meeting COP28 goals of tripling renewable energy by 2030, doubling energy efficiency, moving away from fossil fuels, and protecting ecosystems will require unprecedented global coordination and investment. Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 will need a six-fold increase in mitigation investment, as well as private sector involvement and international cooperation. With $0.9-2.1 trillion in incremental investment per year, such efforts would yield significant returns by reducing costs associated with climate change, air pollution, and environmental damage.
G20 countries, which account for 77% of global emissions, bear the greatest responsibility for emissions reductions. The African Union’s recent inclusion as a permanent G20 member expands representation but highlights the need for equitable support and differentiated responsibilities. Enhanced climate finance will be crucial to help G20 members and other nations achieve fair and sustainable climate goals.
The report highlights that strong NDCs must be transparent, and specific, and cover all greenhouse gases and sectors, with clear targets and implementation plans. NDCs should align with sustainable development goals and include details of support for emerging and developing economies, ensuring accountability and progress.
