Forecast: Heavy Rainfall in Tanzania & Ethiopia, Above-Average Temps in Horn of Africa

  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) is expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, southwestern Uganda, parts of central Ethiopia, and western, central to southern Tanzania.
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is expected in central to southern South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, eastern Tanzania, coastal, central, and western Kenya, central to southern and north-western Somalia, and most parts of central to southern Ethiopia.
  • Dry conditions expected over Sudan, northern South Sudan, western regions of Ethiopia and Eritrea, Djibouti, central to north-eastern Somalia, and parts of eastern and north-western Kenya.

Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 litre of water per square meter.  

Rainfall Anomalies 

  • Wetter than usual conditions are expected over central to southern Ethiopia, south-western South Sudan, western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western Tanzania and south-western Somalia.
  • Drier than usual conditions are expected over eastern parts of Tanzania.

Exceptional Rainfall 

  • Heavy to very heavy rainfall (reaching the 95th percentile) expected in parts of southern and north-western Tanzania and southern Ethiopia.

Flood update  

  • Parts of north-western and southern Tanzania are likely to flood due to the heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in the region. 

Temperature 05 – 12 March 2024 

  • High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over parts of central to eastern South Sudan spanning to southern Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and isolated areas in north-western Kenya.
  • Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan and eastern regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
  • Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of central to western Kenya, central Ethiopia, northern Sudan and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.

Temperature anomalies

  • Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the GHA.

Heat stress

  • Elevated levels of heat stress are expected in eastern Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, most parts of South Sudan and southern Sudan.

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