Several countries across the Greater Horn of Africa are expected to experience moderate rainfall between March 11 and March 18, 2026,
Forecasters are also warning of exceptionally heavy rainfall, with precipitation totals exceeding the 90th percentile expected across
Forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres indicate a 60 percent chance of ENSO-neutral conditions, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña
Over the full March–May period, warmer-than-usual conditions are expected across most of the region, with only a few localised areas
Alongside the rainfall outlook for Eastern Africa, moderate to high temperatures ranging from 20°C to 32°C are expected across the region
A central theme of Sub-COF5 was the co-production of climate services, ensuring that forecasts are shaped by and communicated to end users
The South Sudan Meteorological Services, in collaboration with regional climate partners, released the seasonal climate outlook for March–May
The forecast aims to enhance early awareness and preparedness in the IGAD area, where above-normal temperatures may heighten health risks
In contrast, light rainfall in the Greater Horn of Africa is set to be less than 50 millimetres, signalling continued dry conditions
Based on the outlook, there is a 45% probability of wetter-than-normal rainfall conditions over much of the Greater Horn of Africa(GHA)